In my last post, I was fooled by randomness, or more specifically, by my System 1 thinking. I had hoped that a couple Kahneman fans would call me out in the comments section – though that is not to imply that my rush to judgement was intended as a test (it wasn’t)!
What am I talking about? Well, in my last post, I called out Bangladeshi Prime Minister Hasina based solely on her appearance on Christiane Amanpour’s excellent show. Now, if we think about it, it makes zero sense to base our entire judgement of her ability to govern on one appearance on one news show. I don’t know if we have any experts on Bangladeshi government residing here on TPS Planet, but I am certainly not one. I would need a great deal more information on her regime, their policies, and their effectiveness in managing change before making even the slightest judgement in this regard.
The story is a great illustration of how our minds work, though. Our system 1 makes rapid judgements about individuals. When there is little evidence of a particular trait available, we fill in those gaps in information with what we do know – substituting good qualities when we have an overall good feeling about someone and vice versa. On a blog post meant to entertain, the consequences are not dire. In other cases – negotiation involving known suppliers being one – we need to take steps to avoid that bias.
We’ll explore those in greater detail in the days, weeks or months that follow…whenever my lazy System 2 gets itself motivated again.
- Bangladesh, Kahneman, and Browsers (prometheusprocurement.com)
- Hasina vs. Amanpour (dissertationp.wordpress.com)
- Christiane Amanpour, Offending a nation! (ireport.cnn.com)
- PM of Bangladesh says she’s reforming its garment industry (amanpour.blogs.cnn.com)