Prediction markets are slowly gaining traction


The world is slow to adopt new things. Certain countries – and sub-cultures within countries –

appreciate rules more than other coIowa Prediction Marketuntries.

For example, Silicon Valley has rarely met a rule that they didn’t want to eliminate or disprove.

Prediction markets, while susceptible to a black swan event, are the best way to rapidly assess the probability that an event will occur. Yahoo!, who are not exactly known for being on the frontier of the tech world, has decried that the nomination for the Republican presidential candidate is a dead heat based on the results of ‘prediction markets.’ Exactly which prediction markets is not clear from the article (although they mention PredictWise as an afterthought), which you can find here.

Whether Romney, Gingrich or Paul goes on to win the Republican nomination does not interest me a great deal. What does interest me, is that prediction markets are the headline, while traditional polls are an afterthought.

The world will get there…just don’t hold your breath.

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