Irrationality, gambling and prediction markets


It turns out that the same irrationality that causes some of us to believe that we can predict the outcome of sporting events, causes others to fight a Sisyphean battle against their right to do so. New Jersey is the latest state to fail to acknowledge that Americans gamble online.

The Puritanical vehemence against gambling may occasionally end up being right for the wrong reasons, but in another sense, it is holding back progress in other areas. Prediction markets are viewed as a kind of fringe tool even though they could save companies and governments from paying “experts” loads of money to make predictions for which they are not, and could not be, held accountable. And be more accurate, more often. Governments could get information about potential terrorist attacks. There could be less meetings (seriously). Yes, it would mean less Miltons running around, but the savings from eliminating old-fashioned forecasting methods in business could be huge. Check out the article published by some blogging internet hack here.

True leaders, please stand up.


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