The following are five predictions for 2011:
1. Russia will replace China as the next “power-in-waiting.”
2. People will continue to make decisions not on careful consideration or as a result of debate, but rather on information that appeals to what they already “know.”
3. A highly regarded economist will discover the appropriate level of debt as a ratio of GDP that will allow an economy to come out of a recession without killing the government’s ability to tap capital markets for cash.
4. Inflation in the United States will be greater than 4%.
5. The German public will eventually become so fed up with bailing out other European Union members that it will withdraw from the EU, sparking a reverse Berlin Wall moment where the EU collapses and member states go their own way.
The following are five reasons you should immediately forget the five predictions I just made:
1. I have no accountability, since I’ll only ever mention the ones that turned out to be correct – conveniently leaving out any mention of those that turned out wrong.
2. There are thousands (if not millions) of blowhards making silly predictions like these, which means that a couple of them will turn out to be right – just don’t put much stock in their ability to continue the hot streak!
3. Prediction number 2 is the only valid one of the bunch since that one seems to be written in our human nature – all the others would be based on random events.
4. No matter how well-informed I am about world news (and I’m probably not as informed as the majority of those reading this blog), it will not improve my ability to predict the future.
5. The predictions are mostly based on logical extensions of the current state, and history does not follow a linear progression. Unpredictable, random events are likely to affect how 2011 plays out, rendering any/all of these predictions irrelevant if not completely false.